News from the Beethoven Music Research Center: The manuscript is located in Bonn at the Beethovenhaus, manuscript Mh 59, folio 44 recto, lines 5-7 and 12-13.
It is a Polonaise (Beethoven writes “Polonaise”) in 3/4 time in G major. At the end of the first eight measures, after the double bar line, Beethoven writes the usual “Vi=”, which should be followed by an “=de.”
Given the “tutti,” it was probably written for a musical group or dance orchestra; in fact, Nottebohm writes (Zweite Beethoveniana, chapter 31): “and immediately after a draft (in G major) for the beginning of a Polonaise for piano with orchestral accompaniment.”